Budget vs Actual — as at March 2026
Total Budget (EW + S1)
$15.08M
Earthworks + Stage 1 Civils
Spent to Date
$1.25M
8.3% of combined budget
Remaining to Deploy
$13.83M
Apr 2026 → Mar 2027
Budget Variance
+$187K
✅ Under budget (projected)
Contract Progress
Earthworks Contractor (Bullocks)
$940K / $8.64M
10.9% — ramping from Apr 2026
EW Associated Costs
$106K / $534K
19.9%
Stage 1 Civils (not yet started)
$0 / $4.56M
Contractor starts May/Jun 2026
S1 Associated Costs
$153K / $1.35M
11.4%
Retentions Held (from contractor) ✓ Formula
—
Projected Final Cost
$14,892,989
Budget Headroom
$187,598
EW + Stage 1 — Spend to Date
Full Project — All Costs (ex. GST)
Civil Construction
$18.33M
SP1–SP6 all stages
Associated Dev Costs
$6.59M
Fees, consents, utilities
Land Cost
$3.31M
$39,395 per lot
Total All-In
$28.23M
$296,683 per lot (excl. interest)
Cost Breakdown — Development Estimate (Nov 2025)
Total Cost Categories
Civil Construction — Line Items
Section 1 — Civil Construction
Preliminary & General$2,037,119
Earthworks, Clearing & ESC$6,631,014
Pavement Construction$1,128,246
Concrete Works$698,931
Stormwater$2,217,565
Sanitary Sewer$1,041,262
Water Reticulation$678,595
Utility Services$803,005
Landscaping$946,789
Variations$64,361
Contingency (10%)$1,528,731
Inflation (~3% pa)$551,207
TOTAL SECTION 1
$18,326,825
Section 2 — Associated Development Costs
PCC Development Charges$2,681,835
Local Body / Consenting Fees$222,738
Power Reticulation (84 × $5k)$420,000
Telephone Reticulation (84 × $920)$77,280
Professional Fees$1,950,000
Development Management$640,000
Legal & Valuation$376,794
LINZ Fees$33,900
Contingency (10% on ETC)$192,018
TOTAL SECTION 2
$6,594,565
Land Cost$3,309,217
TOTAL ALL-IN (excl. interest)
$28,230,607
Monthly Cash Flow — May 2025 to Mar 2027
Monthly Spend + Cumulative S-Curve
Actuals
Forecast
Cumulative
Actual Spend (May 25–Mar 26)
$1,251,785
11 months of project activity
Peak Monthly Spend (Forecast)
$1,965,500
Oct 2026 — EW + S1 simultaneous
Projected Completion
Mar 2027
Final contractor draws
Earthworks vs Stage 1 Civils — Monthly Split (Forecast)
Financing — Loan Facilities, Interest & Scenarios
Interest Rate Controls — adjust to run scenarios; updates all calculations live
CARL Rate (% pa)
Dev Fund Rate — Stage 1 (% pa)
Dev Fund Rate — Stage 2 (% pa)
Stage 2 Loan Amount ($)
Stage 2 loan = Dev Fund refinanced after Stage 1 payoff. Default $7.5M covers Stage 2 Civil + Assoc Dev. Draw period: 9 months (Apr 28 – Dec 28).
CARL Facility — Stage 1
$6,000,000
Rate: 5.22% pa · Peak draw Jul 26
Available for project: $3.2M
Utilisation (Jul 26)100%
$1.4M Shortfall ⚠️
Dev Fund — Stage 1
$11,000,000
Rate: 7.28% pa · Interest capitalised
Peak balance ~$10.1M (Mar 27)
Balance vs Limit (end 2027)97.7%
Repaid from S1 sales ✓
Dev Fund — Stage 2 (New)
$7,500,000
Rate: 7.28% pa · Draw: Apr 28–Dec 28
Refinanced after Stage 1 payoff
9-month draw period~$833K/mo
Repaid from S2 sales
Stage 1 Loan Balance Over Time — CARL & Dev Fund (Dec 25 → Mar 27)
Stage 1 — Monthly Interest Schedule (Dec 25 – Mar 27)
| Month | CARL Bal | CARL Int | Dev Fund Bal | Dev Int | Total Int |
|---|
Interest on CARL = cash cost. Dev Fund interest capitalised to balance.
Stage 2 — Loan Draw & Interest Schedule (Apr 28 – Dec 28)
| Month | Draw | Closing Bal | Int (cap.) | Cum. Balance |
|---|
Assumes equal monthly draws over 9 months. Interest capitalised each month. All repaid from Stage 2 lot sales (Jan 29 – Dec 29).
Interest Cost Scenarios — Stage 1
| Scenario | CARL Rate | Dev Fund | Total S1 Int |
|---|
Each +1% adds ~$223K to Stage 1 interest.
Interest Coverage Ratio (Cash Basis)
ICR 2026 (Base Case)0.93× Below 1.0×
ICR 2027 (Base Case)0.35× Critical
Reliant on Whitby lot settlements for debt servicing through 2026–27.
Key Risks
🔴 HIGH — CARL Funding Shortfall
Only $3.2M of $6M CARL available for this project. Scheduled draws total $4.6M → $1.4M shortfall. Need to negotiate additional facility or find alternative bridge funding.
🔴 HIGH — Interest Rate Sensitivity
Use rate controls above to stress-test. Floating rates on CARL and Dev Fund create material exposure. Consider rate hedging (swap/cap) before drawdown.
🟡 MEDIUM — Dev Fund Headroom Tight (S1)
Dev Fund reaches ~$10.1M against $11M limit by Mar 27. Only $879K headroom at base rates. Any rate increase or delay could breach facility limit.
🟡 MEDIUM — Stage 2 Loan Refinancing
Stage 2 loan (~$7.5M) assumed to be refinanced from Dev Fund after Stage 1 payoff. Bank approval required. Market conditions in 2028 may affect rate.
🟢 LOW — EW Cost Overrun Risk
EW budget $9.17M with 10% contingency built in. Current projection $9.30M — within contingency. Monitor monthly.
Feasibility Analysis — Interactive
All figures update live. Prices incl. GST (÷1.15 for ex-GST). Use Cost Control Panel to run scenarios with directors.
Cost Control Panel — adjust from baseline for scenario analysis
| Cost Line | Baseline | % Change | $ Change | Adjusted | Δ vs Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthworks (KBCL) | $8,636,452 | $8,636,452 | — | ||
| Civil Stage 1 | $4,563,922 | $4,563,922 | — | ||
| Civil Stage 2 | $4,166,874 | $4,166,874 | — | ||
| Assoc Dev — Stage 1 | $1,346,713 | $1,346,713 | — | ||
| Assoc Dev — Stage 2 | $2,913,820 | $2,913,820 | — | ||
| Land | $3,309,217 | $3,309,217 | — | ||
| Interest — Stage 1 (52.3%) | $632,540 | $632,540 | — | ||
| Interest — Stage 2 (47.7%) | $577,767 | $577,767 | — | ||
| PM Salary — Stage 1 ($15.3K/mo × 34 mo) | $520,200 | $520,200 | — | ||
| PM Salary — Stage 2 ($15.3K/mo × 24 mo) | $367,200 | $367,200 | — | ||
| Other Fixed (EW Assoc + Enabling Works + Other) | $3,293,609 | — not adjustable — | $3,293,609 | — | |
| TOTAL COSTS | $30,328,314 | $30,328,314 | — | ||
% Change and $ Change are independent and cumulative: Adjusted = Baseline × (1 + %) + $. Both fields can be used simultaneously. Interest split by Stage 1/2 civil budget ratio (52.3% / 47.7%). PM Salary: $170K pa × 1.08 load = $183,600/yr = $15,300/mo. Stage 1: 34 months (May 25–Mar 28) = $520,200. Stage 2: 24 months (Apr 28–Mar 30) = $367,200.
Stage 1 — 35 Lots (Bayleys Jul 2025: $18.1M gross)
| Lot Type / Pricing | Lots | Disc % | Price (incl. GST) | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STANDARD 398–699 sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $6,120,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| PREMIUM 700–999 sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $7,800,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| LARGE 1,000+ sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $4,320,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| STAGE 1 TOTAL | 35 lots | $517K avg | $18,240,000 | |
Full Price: full lot price. Discounted: Price × (1 − Disc%). Each lot type shows both pricing rows.
Stage 2 — 49 Lots (Bayleys Jul 2025: $25.5M gross)
| Lot Type / Pricing | Lots | Disc % | Price (incl. GST) | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STANDARD 398–699 sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $7,575,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| PREMIUM 700–999 sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $10,400,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| LARGE 1,000+ sqm | ||||
| Full Price | — | $7,490,000 | ||
| Discounted | $0 | |||
| STAGE 2 TOTAL | 49 lots | $520K avg | $25,465,000 | |
Full Price: full lot price. Discounted: Price × (1 − Disc%). Each lot type shows both pricing rows.
Feasibility Summary
Stage 1 Revenue (incl. GST)—
Stage 2 Revenue (incl. GST)—
Total Gross (incl. GST)—
Total Gross (ex. GST)—
Earthworks—
Civil Stage 1—
Civil Stage 2—
Assoc Dev — Stage 1—
Assoc Dev — Stage 2—
Land—
Interest — Stage 1—
Interest — Stage 2—
PM Salary — Stage 1—
PM Salary — Stage 2—
Other Fixed($3,293,609)
Total Costs—
Net Profit
—
Margin
—
Per Lot
—
Bayleys Reference (Jul 2025)
Stage 1$18,105,000 incl. GST
Stage 2$25,475,000 incl. GST
Combined$43,580,000 incl. GST
Price Sensitivity — Net Profit vs Price Movement
| Scenario | Price Adj. | Total Revenue | Net Profit | Margin |
|---|
Based on current inputs and adjusted costs.
Revenue vs Cost Waterfall
Stage Progress Tracker
SP1 — Enabling Works
Budget: $1,816,803 · Status: Completed
100%
SP2 — Wetlands & Site Protection
Budget: $943,306 · Status: Completed
100%
SP3+SP4 — MSE Wall, Bulk Earthworks + Civil Enabling
Budget: $9,169,952 · Contractor: Bullocks/KBCL · Started: Sep 2025
$1,041,968 spent of $9,169,952 — main ramp-up Apr 2026
11.4%
SP5 — Civil Stage 1 (35 lots)
Budget: $5,910,635 · Contractor: TBC · Start: May/Jun 2026
$153,038 consultant costs only — contractor not yet appointed
2.6%
SP6 — Civil Stage 2 (49 lots)
Budget: $7,080,694 · Est. Start: 2027
Not yet commenced — follows Stage 1 completion
0%
Budget Allocation by Stage
Key Project Stats
Total Lots84 lots
Stage 1 Lots35 lots (4.37 ha)
Stage 2 Lots49 lots (6.02 ha)
Total Site Area10.38 ha
Lot Size Range398 – 9,568 sqm
Average Lot Size982 sqm
Development Cost / Lot$296,683
Land Cost / Lot$39,395
ValuationBayleys Jul 2025
Sales Tracker — Stage 1 & Stage 2 Lot Sales
All net proceeds (ex GST) applied per Westpac agreement: Dev Fund first, then CARL. |
Avg lot price pulls from Feasibility tab — adjust prices there. |
Interest rates pull from Financing tab rate controls.
STAGE 1 — 35 Lots · Sales Period: Apr 2027 – Mar 2028 (12 months)
Target Lots
35 lots
0 sold scheduled
Total Gross Revenue
—
avg — / lot
Total Loan Repaid
—
—
Balance After S1 Sales
—
—
Monthly Lot Sales — Stage 1 (Apr 27 – Mar 28 · adjust per month)
—
Stage 1 — Monthly Loan Repayment Schedule
| Month | Lots | Gross Rev | Net (ex GST) | Dev Fund Int | Dev Fund Repaid | Dev Fund Bal | CARL Int | CARL Repaid | CARL Bal | Total Loan Bal |
|---|
S1 Monthly Revenue & Loan Balance
Stage 1 Summary
Avg Price/Lot (from Feasibility)—
Total Lots Scheduled—
Total Gross Revenue—
Total Net Proceeds (ex GST)—
Dev Fund — Opening Balance$10,121,205
Dev Fund — Interest Accrued—
Dev Fund — Amount Repaid—
Dev Fund — Closing Balance—
CARL — Opening Balance$6,000,000
CARL — Interest Accrued—
CARL — Amount Repaid—
CARL — Closing Balance—
STAGE 2 — 49 Lots · Civil: Apr 2028 – Dec 2028 (9 months) · Sales Period: Jan 2029 – Dec 2029 (12 months)
Target Lots
49 lots
0 sold scheduled
Total Gross Revenue
—
avg — / lot
S2 Loan Repaid
—
—
Balance After S2 Sales
—
—
Monthly Lot Sales — Stage 2 (Jan 29 – Dec 29 · adjust per month)
—
Stage 2 — Monthly Loan Repayment Schedule
S2 loan balance at Jan 29 opening = Stage 2 loan + 9 months capitalised interest during civil construction.
| Month | Lots | Gross Rev | Net (ex GST) | S2 Loan Int | S2 Loan Repaid | S2 Loan Balance | Surplus Cash |
|---|
S2 Monthly Revenue & Loan Balance
Stage 2 Summary
Avg Price/Lot (from Feasibility)—
Total Lots Scheduled—
Total Gross Revenue—
Total Net Proceeds (ex GST)—
S2 Loan — Opening (Jan 29)—
S2 Loan — Interest During Sales—
S2 Loan — Amount Repaid—
S2 Loan — Closing Balance—
Net Surplus to Group—
Monthly Cash Flow Detail — Stage 1 Programme (May 2025 → Mar 2027)
Stage 1 scope only: Earthworks (Bullocks/KBCL) + Stage 1 Civils (35 lots). Stage 2 works not commenced. |
Actuals (May 25–Mar 26)
Forecast (Apr 26 onwards)
Source: PM Cashflow Tracker Summary sheet. Earthworks Contractor = Bullocks (KBCL). Sep 25 $4,737 included. Jan–Mar 2027: EW Contractor $601K + EW Assoc $44K each month. S1 Stage contractor not started until Apr 26. Budget: EW+S1+S2 = $22,161,281.
Retention Calculator — EW Contract (KBCL/Bullocks)
EW Contractor Spend (Actual)
—
Cumulative through Mar 2026
Correct Retention (Formula)
—
✓ Contract tiered calculation
PM's Figure
$56,779
⚠ Manually calculated — check against formula
Variance (PM vs Formula)
—
—
Contract Retention Tiers
| Tier | Rate | Applied To | Max | Held |
|---|
Progress to Maximum Cap ($200,000)
—
Max: $200,000
Scope of retention: Applies to EW Contractor payments only (KBCL/Bullocks). No retention on Associated Costs. Different terms apply to other contract works.
Monthly EW Contractor Payments & Retention
| Month | EW Payment | Cumul EW | Monthly Ret | Cumul Ret |
|---|
Showing actuals only (months with EW contractor payment). Months with $0 payment not shown.
Defects Liability Retention
Total Retention Held
—
Current cumulative
Released at Practical Completion
—
50% of total retention
Held During Defects Period
—
50% — defects liability retention
Released at Defects End
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Final release to contractor